A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Approach for Assessing Regional Biochar Market Potential

The agricultural sector in the Russian Federation generates substantial volumes of organic waste, creating significant environmental challenges and presenting an opportunity for value-added products such as biochar. While biochar offers proven benefits for soil improvement, carbon sequestration, and waste valorization, no systematic, nationwide assessment of its market potential exists. This study aims to develop and apply a structured, multi-criteria approach to evaluate and rank the biochar sales potential of Russian regions. A fuzzy multiple-criteria decision-making model was constructed using six proxy indicators linked to key biochar applications: mineral fertilizer application rate (X1), fresh water usage for irrigation (X2), area of degraded land (X3), feed consumption per conventional head of cattle (X4), cattle population (X5), and sales volume of main agricultural products (X6). Weights were assigned based on each application’s scale and quality requirements. The model was applied to statistical data from 78 Russian regions, and K-means and hierarchical clustering analysis were used to validate the results. The primary outcome of this study is the development of a replicable fuzzy multicriteria approach for assessing the market potential of biochar. The application of the approach is demonstrated through the first comprehensive ranking of Russian regions by biochar sales potential. The Krasnodar Territory was identified as having the highest potential (indicator value = 0.186), followed by the Rostov Oblast (0.320) and the Saratov Oblast (0.335). In total, 15 regions were classified as having ”High” or ”Very High” potential, whereas more than 20 fell into the ”Medium” category. Cluster analysis validated these rankings and revealed three distinct regional profiles based on their underlying socio-agro-economic characteristics. This study provides a novel, data-driven spatial framework for assessing the potential of the biochar market at a national scale. The resulting regional ranking offers a foundational tool for informing strategic decisions on the siting of biochar production facilities and for designing targeted, region-specific market development policies for Russia’s emerging biochar economy.

Biochar; Biochar market; Cluster analysis; Fuzzy logic; Regional assessment

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