Assessing Watershed Health Using Long-Term Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Derived Vegetation Dynamics in the Upper Citarum Watershed

Rapid land-use/land-cover (LULC) change, vegetation degradation, and increasing anthropogenic pressures have reduced the ecological stability of many tropical watersheds, creating a need for practical approaches to long-term environmental monitoring. Although watershed health is commonly evaluated using hydrological, ecological, and water-quality indicators, the application of long-term satellite-derived vegetation dynamics within the Reliability–Resilience–Vulnerability (RRV) framework remains limited. This study applied the RRV framework to assess vegetation-based watershed health in the Upper Citarum Watershed (UCW), Indonesia, using MODIS MOD13Q1 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data (250 m) during the dry season (June–September) from 2000 to 2020. Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability were integrated into a Watershed Health Index (WHI) using a geometric mean. Correlation and threshold sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate land-cover relationships and frame-work robustness. The mean dry-season NDVI of the UCW was 0.60, with higher values in mountainous forested areas than in urbanized regions. Vegetation greenness declined during 2002–2003, 2006–2007, and 2015–2016, corresponding to major El Ni˜no and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Ciwidey exhibited the highest WHI (0.80), whereas Cikapundung had the lowest (0.34). Forest cover was positively associated with Reliability, Resilience, and WHI, while built-up areas showed the opposite relationship. Although NDVI threshold selection affected absolute indicator values, the spatial pattern and sub-watershed ranking remained stable, demonstrating framework robustness. Compared with conventional NDVI analysis, the proposed RRV–NDVI framework captures vegetation persistence, recovery capacity, and degradation severity, providing a practical and transferable approach for long-term vegetation-based watershed health assessment in data-limited tropical watersheds.

MODIS NDVI; Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability; Upper Citarum watershed; Vegetation-Based watershed health

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