A Fuzzy Delphi Model for Prioritizing Uncaptured Value in Circular Manufacturing: Decision-Making in the Heavy Equipment Industry

Manufacturing remains a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and resource depletion, accelerating the transition toward circular business models. Although circular manufacturing seeks to generate economic, social, and environmental value, significant uncaptured value persists and is insufficiently prioritized. This study systematically identifies and prioritizes uncaptured values within circular manufacturing business models. A literature review identified 35 uncaptured values related to sustainable manufacturing business models targeting six captured values aligned with the SDGs. A Fuzzy Delphi survey involving nine experts in heavy equipment and machinery recovery operations was conducted to ensure industrial relevance. Nine uncaptured values met the consensus (75%) and threshold (0.2) criteria and were subsequently prioritized using fuzzy evaluation scores. The retained values primarily reflect core operational constraints, particularly weak quality control in recovery activities, limited availability of viable end-of-life products, and unfavorable recovery end-of-life characteristics. These findings indicate that bottlenecks in reverse supply and recovery execution predominantly drive uncaptured value in circular manufacturing rather than downstream market factors. By providing an expertconsensus prioritization framework, this study advances research on circular business models and offers a practical foundation for targeted mitigation strategies to strengthen value capture and enhance the long-term resilience of circular manufacturing systems.

Circular economy; Fuzzy delphi; Manufacturing; Uncaptured value

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