Land Value Capture Potential of Jakarta’s LRT: Early Post-Operational Evidence from Residential Property Prices in TOD Zones

Jakarta’s recent light rail transit (LRT) development has been promoted as part of a broader transit-oriented development (TOD) agenda. However, empirical evidence on whether early-stage operations influence surrounding land values is limited. This study examines residential land prices within 1 km of the Dukuh Atas–Cawang LRT corridor to assess the roles of structural property attributes and proximity to urban amenities. A dataset of 97 residential properties was analyzed using a hedonic price model (HPM) to identify significant predictors and a Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) to capture spatial variation in their effects. The results show that building area, proximity to high schools, and proximity to the central business district (CBD) are positively associated with land prices, while distance to LRT stations has no significant effect. These findings indicate that accessibility to key amenities currently outweighs transit access in shaping land values. The study contributes to TOD and Land Value Capture (LVC) research in Southeast Asia by providing post-operational evidence from an emerging megacity context and suggests that coordinated urban design, land use integration, and station area improvements are required for LRT investments to generate measurable value uplift.

Hedonic price model; Land value capture; Residential property; LRTJabodebek; Transit-Oriented development

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