• International Journal of Technology (IJTech)
  • Vol 13, No 2 (2022)

Flood Prediction due to Land Cover Change in the Ciliwung River Basin

Flood Prediction due to Land Cover Change in the Ciliwung River Basin

Title: Flood Prediction due to Land Cover Change in the Ciliwung River Basin
Mohammad Farid, Maryo Inri Pratama, Arno Adi Kuntoro, Mohammad Bagus Adityawan, Faizal Immaddudin Wira Rohmat, Idham Riyando Moe

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Cite this article as:
Farid, M., Pratama, M.I., Kuntoro, A.A., Adityawan, M.B., Rohmat, F.I.W., Moe, I.R., 2022. Flood Prediction due to Land Cover Change in the Ciliwung River Basin. International Journal of Technology. Volume 13(2), pp. 356-366

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Mohammad Farid Water Resources Engineering Research Group, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha No. 10, 40132 Bandung, Indonesia
Maryo Inri Pratama Urban and Regional Planning Study Program, School of Civil Engineering and Planning, Institut Teknologi Kalimantan, Jl. Soekarno Hatta No.KM 15, 76127 Balikpapan, Indonesia
Arno Adi Kuntoro Center for Water Resources Development, Institute for Research and Community Services, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha No. 10, 76127 Bandung, Indonesia
Mohammad Bagus Adityawan Water Resources Engineering Research Group, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha No. 10, 40132 Bandung, Indonesia
Faizal Immaddudin Wira Rohmat Water Resources Engineering Research Group, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha No. 10, 40132 Bandung, Indonesia
Idham Riyando Moe Directorate General of Water Resources, Ministry of Public Works and Housing, 20th Pattimura Street, Kebayoran Baru, 12110 Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia
Email to Corresponding Author

Abstract
Flood Prediction due to Land Cover Change in the Ciliwung River Basin

Located in the Special Capital Region of Jakarta (DKI Jakarta), which serves as the government capital and national capital of Indonesia, the Ciliwung River plays a major role in Indonesia. The increasing population of the Jakarta and Bogor area has resulted in an increase in the level of land ownership, which has had an impact on increasing areas of settlement and decreasing green open spaces. This rapid urbanization and change in land use has directly affected the hydrological nature of the area, causing an increase in the flooding volume in this region. This research was conducted in four stages: hydrological analysis, hydraulic analysis, flood hazard mapping, and flood assessment of land cover. To estimate the impact of the land cover change that has occurred, the Soil Conservation Service Unit Hydrograph was used along with the West Java rainfall distribution method. Hydraulic modeling uses the Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System, with 1D for channel runoff and 2D for surface runoff. Two projected land cover changes from a previous study and spatial plan were used to analyze design discharges. The results found that, for every 13 km2 of forest or agricultural area converted into urban or bare soil area, the flood peak discharge, flood area, and flood volume would increase by 3.6%, 15%, and 16%, respectively. The hydrological analysis showed that, based on historical data trends, the land cover change in 2030 would lead to an increase in peak discharge, flood area, and flood volume of 25%, 101.7%, and 91%, respectively. However, this impact could be minimized by following Bogor District Spatial Planning, which has a wider forest area than the future projection land cover.


Ciliwung River Basin; Curve number; Flood; Land cover change

Introduction

      The Ciliwung River Basin has a broad watershed area of 337 km2, with the length of the main river being about 117 km, and it forms the West Flood Canal (Kanal Banjir Barat) system, which covers more than a quarter of the total area of Jakarta. Jakarta is the city with the largest population in Southeast Asia, at more than 10 million, and it has growth reaching 0.94% annually (BPS of Jakarta Province, 2020). The increasing population of the Jakarta and Bogor area has resulted in an increase in the level of land ownership, which has had an impact on increasing areas of settlement and decreasing green open spaces. In terms of urban planning and land use, Jakarta fulfills less than one-third of the ideal scale of the green environment and catchment areas needed as natural catchments in years of normal rainfall (Setiowati et al., 2018). This poor land use is shown in several locations designed as rain catchment areas, which are mostly used as luxury housing areas (Firman et al., 2011). Jakarta’s rapid growth has affected the surrounding areas, particularly to the south, which have turned agricultural areas into industrial areas (Farid et al., 2011; Hidajat et al., 2013; Widiatmaka et al., 2016; Moe et al., 2018). This rapid urbanization and land use change has directly affected the hydrological nature of the area by reducing the rate of infiltration, baseflow, and lag time and by increasing surface runoff, peak discharge, runoff volume, and flood frequency (Hartono et al., 2010; Ogden et al., 2011; Emam et al., 2016; Tellman et al., 2016; Julian et al., 2019)

      Jakarta’s open areas over the past 20 years have been followed by an increase in the intensity and occurrence of floods, indicating a direct relationship between a reduction in green open spaces and the exacerbation of the condition in Jakarta as one of the most vulnerable cities facing flood disasters (Fuchs, 2010). Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have also indicated the effects of the frequency and characteristics of rainfall (Boysen et al., 2014; Mitsova, 2014). In 2013, Jakarta experienced a major flood in which 124 villages were submerged, with a total of 20 fatalities. The floods in 2013 were estimated to cause losses of US$360 million. In addition to causing damage to the area around the river, flooding in the Ciliwung River Basin also had a direct impact on several vital national monuments. Nonstructural measures, such as hazard mapping and flood risk, can be very effective for land use planning and flood damage mitigation (Marfai et al., 2015; Kuntiyawichai et al., 2016; Darabi et al., 2019; Farid et al., 2020).
      In this study, the river basin has been divided into three sections—upper, middle, and downstream—based on the difference in the area slope and the availability of an automatic water level recorder (AWLR) for the needs of the early warning system. Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) software was used as a hydrological modeling tool to produce flood hydrographs at Depok AWLR, MT. A Haryono AWLR at the Manggarai flood gate, along with the Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), was used as a hydraulic modeling tool to generate the flood inundation model in the Ciliwung River Basin. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of estimated changes in land cover on future flood hazards with several land cover scenarios through changes in peak discharge, flood area, and flood volume in Jakarta. To quantify the detailed results, the magnitude of the change in flooding was compared to the change in forest area converted to settlement area.

      Conclusion

      The present study attempted to estimate the impact of land cover changes on the evolution of flood peak discharge, inundation area, and volume in the Ciliwung River Basin, Indonesia. HEC-HMS was used to generate a flood hydrograph to calibrate and design flood discharges, while HEC-RAS was used as the hydraulic tool. To estimate the impact of land cover changes that occur, the Soil Conservation Service Unit Hydrograph was used along with the West Java rainfall distribution method. The hydrological analysis shows that land cover change based on historical land cover trends would lead to an increase in peak discharge, flood area, and flood volume in 2030 by 23%, 101.7%, and 91%, respectively. However, by following Bogor District Spatial Planning, the increase in flood effects for peak discharge, flood area, and flood volume would be 4.7%, 18.2%, and 15.85%, respectively. With every 13 km2 of forest or agricultural area converted into urban or bare soil area, the flood peak discharge, flood area, and flood volume would increase by 3.6%, 15%, and 16%, respectively. The results of this study demonstrate that further detailed studies on the impact of the LULC on flood hazards are necessary, especially in urbanized areas. The study would be useful in spatial planning and can indicate areas that are currently or potentially flood prone and are also likely to be subject to future development. Such areas should be of special consideration in the formation of spatial planning policy to avoid economic losses in the future.

      Acknowledgement

          This research was funded by the Research and Community Services of Institut Teknologi Bandung regarding 2020 Research Group B Research (FTSL.PN-6-05-2020). The authors would also like to acknowledge the support given by the Ministry of Research and Technology of the Republic of Indonesia through 2020 Applied Research and the joint cooperation between Institut Teknologi Bandung and Huddersfield University through the United Kingdom’s Natural Environment Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council.

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