|Olga Zaborovskaia||The State Institute of Economics, Finance, Law and Technology, Gatchina, Leningrad region, 188300, Russia|
|Elena Sharafanova||St. Petersburg State University of Economics, Saint-Petersburg, 191023, Russia|
|Liudmila Maksanova||The Baikal Institute of Nature Management of the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ulan-Ude, Republic of Buryatia, 670047, Russia|
The purpose of the study is to obtain a scenario forecast of the volume and rate of recovery in tourist flows, which have experienced a catastrophic decline due to restrictions imposed by the COronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) threats. As a forecasting tool in conditions of insufficient initial analytical data, it is proposed to use a model based on the extrapolation of tourist flows. The forecasts were made for Russian regions included in the Interregional Association for Economic Cooperation “The Siberian Agreement”. The research results are presented in the form of four forecast scenarios calculated in the rough forecast methodology under various hypotheses about changing the input parameters of the model.
Forecasting; Pandemic; Recovery of tourist flows; Tourism industry
The COVID-19 pandemic struck a devastating blow to the tourism industry around the world. According to Federal Agency for Tourism estimates, in May 2020, the fall in turnover in this sector was 95–100%, the lost income exceeded 1.5 trillion rubles, and about 2.5 million tourism workers were threatened by unemployment (Berawi, 2020; Berawi et al., 2020; Losses, n.d.).
Prediction of the possibility of restoring tourist flows is the first step in forming algorithms of actions, their financial support, and mechanisms of their neutralization. Therefore, the aim of this paper is determined by the need to develop forecasts of consumption of tourist products under conditions of the poor predictability of tourist flows and severe external restrictions on meeting the demand for consumption of tourist products. T. The problem in this case is to evaluate the choice of input parameters of the predictive model of scenarios, which allows taking into consideration different variants of gradual fading of the pandemic.
The study is based on the concept of a rough forecast, which makes it possible to assess the general trends in the development of the industry in conditions of a high degree of uncertainty of environmental factors. Predictive calculations are implemented on the data of several subjects of the Siberian Federal District, included in the Interregional Association for Economic Interaction of the Subjects of the Russian Federation’s Siberian Agreement.
Restoration of tourist flows depends on external global factors related to the safety of tourists and the local population, the possibility of removing restrictive measures on tourists’ travel, and the development of measures to support the tourism business at the federal and regional levels. These measures will be more effective if they are balanced precisely in terms of necessary costs and projected results. The pace and weak predictability of changes requires speed and accuracy of managerial decisions, considering the possibility of their adjustment.
By early July 2020, the situation developed under a pessimistic scenario. The decrease in the tourism industry in the Republic of Buryatia in the first quarter of 2020 amounted to 80% in comparison with the corresponding period of 2019. The Government of the Republic of Buryatia is implementing a wide range of state support measures for small and medium-sized enterprises in the tourism sector to reduce the negative effects and implement opportunities associated with the spread of coronavirus c. Allocated funds in the amount of more than 52 million rubles will be used for implementing support measures, such as granting subsidies to tour operators representing 80% of the cost of renting premises to provide services for three months, reimbursement to hotels and other collective accommodation facilities representing 80% of the cost of utilities for three months, and granting subsidies to tour operators to pay for the contract of insurance of civil liability for failure to fulfill obligations under the contract on sale of a tourist product (Tourism, n.d.).
The forecasting results can underlie the development of
options for regional programs to support the tourism industry, which will
increase the efficiency of spending. If the pessimistic forecast is realized,
it will be necessary to ensure the adoption of measures of direct government
intervention in the tourism sector.
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