Published at : 18 Jan 2023
Volume : IJtech
Vol 14, No 1 (2023)
DOI : https://doi.org/10.14716/ijtech.v14i1.3028
Debasis Sarkar | School of Technology, Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar-382007, India |
Anal Sheth | Faculty of Technology, CEPT University, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad-380009, India |
N. Ranganath | EI Technologies (P) Ltd, Bangalore-560041, India |
This research
aims to develop a social benefit-cost analysis model for the feasibility
assessment of the proposed electric bus rapid transit system project in
Ahmedabad, India. An attempt has been made to indicate that the electric bus
locomotion, which has a high potential for improving environmental impact can
be considered sustainable for urban conglomeration. The realization of sustainable
transportation projects is frequently hampered due to the high weightage
associated with the financial dimension and somewhat negligence of
environmental and social dimensions of the transportation system in the project
appraisal process. Therefore, a quantitative analysis of the electric bus
transportation system in an urban context was conducted, considering the three
major dimensions of sustainability such as economic, environmental, and social.
The evaluation was carried out using the present worth analysis of various
benefits and costs associated with the implementation of the electric bus rapid
transit system in the city. The outcome, as indicated by the value of social
benefit-cost ratio, illustrates that such a project can be positively justified
from the point of view of the benefits gained by the society as well as
profitable returns and value addition of infrastructure investment in the long
run. The research contributes by validating that social benefit-cost analysis
can be used to evaluate sustainable transportation system appraisals in order
to make their realization more favorable.
Electric mobility; Life cycle costing; Public transport; Social benefit-cost ratio; Sustainable transport
In line with the global trend toward the adoption of electric vehicles (EV) for various segments, the government of India, as well as other sectors, have expressed strong interest in fast and large-scale EV adoption. The expression has come in various forms, including reported targets of EV shift (such as 100 % EV by 2030), enabling policies, indigenous manufacturing and approval of electric buses, and other R&D efforts by institutions. Electric buses are one of the possible ways to achieve sustainable public transportation systems. The tripartite model, which includes economic, environmental, and social aspects, is commonly used to assess the sustainability of transportation systems. However, the environmental and social aspects of transportation system project appraisals are frequently neglected. This study aims to conduct a quantitative analysis of an electric bus transportation system in an urban setting while considering all three aspects of sustainability. The analysis involves identifying various types of benefits and costs associated with the electric bus transport system in the city, their respective quantification in equivalent monetary terms, and accounting in connection with the time value over the life span of the transport system infrastructure. The evaluation of the electric bus transport system for the selected case city of Ahmedabad, India, as indicated by the social benefit-cost ratio (SBCR) has been presented, and associated deductions have been made to reflect on the significance of considering sustainability benefits of the transport system projects for the appraisal. For the case of the electric bus transportation system, the final social benefit-cost ratio is reflected alongside other comparative indicators. The case studied here is for the bus rapid transport system in Ahmedabad, a city in western India. The paper has the following structure. First, the literature on benefit-cost analysis studies in the transportation sector has been reviewed and presented. After that, the methodology employed in this study was described. The following section shows how to apply this technique to the dataset of the bus rapid transit system in Ahmedabad. The results of the case study are later discussed, and the final section concludes the study from the analysis and presents the futuristic relevance of the study outcome.
1.1. Benefit-Cost Analysis for Transportation Projects: a
Literature Review
Historically,
benefit-cost analysis has been used to evaluate alternative transportation
projects and to aid in decision-making and policy formulations with equity
considerations, discounted cash flow techniques, and sensitivity analysis for benefit-cost
studies of the future (Barrell and Hills, 1972). It has
been recommended for comparing transportation projects cost analysis over
traditional benefit-cost analysis which aggregates all monetizable cost
components, including “cost savings” (these were referred to as “benefits” in
traditional analysis techniques) (DeCorla-Souza et al., 1997).
Many researchers have brought into discussion the challenges associated with
benefit-cost analysis as a technique and the capacity of benefit-cost analysis
(BCA) frameworks in decision making. The deficiency such as incomplete
analysis, uncertainty, and difficulty in effect estimation (Mouter, Annema,
and Van-Wee, 2015), the sensitive question of uncertainties in
cost-benefit assessments and their influence on public infrastructure
investment decisions (Asplund and Eliasson, 2016) have been
addressed in the context of a benefit-cost method for project appraisal. As
well as the methodological issues and corresponding models for ex-ante project
assessment of cost-benefit analysis for capital intensive infrastructures (Florio and
Sirtori, 2016), critical questions on the
importance of qualitative impacts including social, human life, natural, and
built environment over quantitative assessment (Hickman and Dean, 2017) and
on the equity perspectives (Martens and Floridea, 2017). Sheth and Sarkar
(2020) were the primary proponents of the socio-economic
feasibility analysis of the mass rapid transit system (MRTS) projects of
Ahmedabad a city in western India. Their study revealed that with government,
sustainable MRTS projects are techno-economically feasible in an emerging
economy like India.
Other
researchers have commented on the BCA technique as applied to assess
larger-scale economies and organizational changes in infrastructure projects
such as public urban transit (Viton, 1993), as well as
the microeconomic and macroeconomic analyses tools for the transportation
sector as an attempt to achieve broader (regional) economic benefits from new
transportation investment (Anas, Tamin, and Wibowo, 2016). A
broader approach for evaluating the economic benefits of urban infrastructure
with an integrated four-dimensional approach accounting for the effects of
consumption investment, government purchase effect, and external demand (Sun and Cui,
2018a) reflected the potential of coordinated development. The
same was illustrated (Sun and Cui, 2018b) in terms of
economic, social and environmental benefits. In the context of mass rapid
transit systems, it has been demonstrated that indirect social effects such as
ridership can contribute to improved benefits (White, Turner, and Mbara, 1992).
On the other hand, subsidies and public ownership models for mass transit can
lead to wasteful cost escalation (Pucher and Marksted, 1983). It has
also been recommended that benefit-cost analysis be used for regional public
transport planning in healthy economies (Johansson et al., 2017).
The social, economic, and environmental impacts of public transportation have
also been reviewed for meeting the sustainability goals of cities and regions,
and recommendations on the sustainable performance of public transit have also
been made (Miller
et al., 2016). With the advent of electric
vehicle technology, it was critically observed that the EV policies in
developed countries lack sufficient attention from economists while addressing
social costs and benefits (Massiani, 2015) and where
such analysis has been performed, the economically beneficial time frame was
predicted to be as much as another 45 years for EV and another 95 years for
Fuel cell vehicles (FCV) (Ito and Managi, 2015). The
benefit-cost analysis for comparing the profitability of electric and gasoline
tax is also quantitatively concluded that the electric taxi could be profitable
when gasoline price goes up, and battery price goes down (Wang et al.,
2015). Despite the numerous obstacles that prevent successful
implementation of electric vehicles, the necessity of green vehicles has been
emphasized (Sadek,
2012). A recent business case in favor of EVs and ideas to
overcome technological and market penetration barriers have also been
developed. It has also been proved that the successful realizations of such
projects and the creation of business value are dependent on business
strategies and benefits realization management (Serra and Kunc, 2015).
With this background of benefit-cost analysis reviewed in the context of the
transportation sector, an attempt has been made to perform the social
benefit-cost analysis (SBCA) for the electric bus transport project in
Ahmedabad.
Figure 1 depicts the methodology used to calculate the social benefit-cost ratio. For the present case study, SBCA for the electric bus rapid transit system (e-BRTS) has been calculated for the proposed network of 185.1 km, which includes eight routes. The benefits and costs and the net value of benefits are identified in Figure 2. The following section illustrates the values and bases for monetary and non-monetary benefits and costs data. . The present value of the benefits and costs is computed for 25 years life cycle and a 12 % discount rate. The analysis is then presented, including the computation of the social benefit-cost ratio. Many researchers consider a 12% discount rate a standard percentage, including Ranganath and Sarkar (2021), Sarkar and Sheth (2021). A life cycle of 25 years is a common practice in BRTS projects (Sarkar and Sheth, 2021).
Figure 1 Methodology
for computing SBCR
3. Case Study and Analysis
3.1. Scope
The analysis has been performed for the
case data of the bus rapid transit system in the city of Ahmedabad (popularly
known as Janmarg, incepted in 2009), which currently utilizes diesel as the
major fuel for bus locomotion. It is India's largest BRT operation,
transporting approximately 0.14 million passengers using nearly 250 buses on a
dedicated 97-kilometer route through 158 stations daily. Recently, the
government of India approved financial assistance for the purchase of 40
electric buses for the city under the faster adoption and manufacturing of
(hybrid &) electric vehicles (FAME) Scheme, Department of Heavy Industry,
Ministry of Heavy Industries, and Public Enterprises. Following this, the city
transportation authority intends to appoint and deploy an operator /original
equipment manufacturer (OEM) on a gross cost contract basis for the
procurement, operation, and maintenance of 40 Midi AC electric buses. Table 1 illustrates the routes selected for
this first implementation; thus, analysis has been applied within this scope.
Table 1 Route
details for proposed e-BRTS
Sr.
No. |
Route
no. |
Origin
– Destination |
Route Length (km) |
No.
of buses on
the route |
Daily vehicle km |
1 |
1 |
Maninagar
to Ghuma Gam |
21.2 |
28 |
3732 |
2 |
1 |
Ghuma
Gam to Maninagar |
19.9 |
3631 | |
3 |
2 |
Sola
Bhagwat to Maninagar |
22.2 |
14 |
3833 |
4 |
2 |
Maninagar
to Sola Bhagwat |
22.9 |
4149 | |
5 |
3 |
Iscon
to Naroda Gam |
22.4 |
22 |
3833 |
6 |
3 |
Naroda
Gam to Isckon |
22.2 |
3833 | |
7 |
101 |
RTO
Circle to RTO Circle (Circular route 101) |
27.1 |
12 |
4769 |
8 |
201 |
RTO
Circle to RTO Circle (Circular route 102) |
27.2 |
12 |
4769 |
|
|
Total
route length |
185.1 |
|
|
3.2. Data sources
The
monetary and non-monetary benefit and cost data have been obtained or derived
from various sources such as (a) A-BRTS office primary consultation, (b) BRTS
publications, (c) Working paper on SBCA of Delhi metro by Murty et al.
(2006) (d) Road user cost study by Swaminathan and Kadiyali (1983)
(e) Publication by electric mobility alliance (2017) (f) Publication by GGGI
and CSTEP (2016) (g) Publication by the Department of food and rural affairs
(UK) (h) Publication by the Ministry of urban development, India (2016) (i)
Publication by the Ministry of road transport and highways, India (2015) (j)
Publication by the International council on clean transportation (2009) (k)
Publication by the Ministry of heavy industries and public enterprises, India
(2017) (l) Publication by Energy alternative India (2014) and (m) Publication
by the India energy portal (2013).
3.3. Benefits estimations
The
following sections provide overviews of the potential benefits of e-BRTS.
(a) Revenue: The
revenue benefits for the e-BRTS consist of ridership and advertisement revenue.
(b) Savings in
vehicle operating costs: Two factors are expected to reduce vehicle operating
costs: (i) Non-operation of diverted vehicle(two-wheelers) and (ii) Non-
operation
of diesel buses.
(c) Environmental
benefits: The environmental benefit includes a reduction in tailpipe emissions
and better air quality, as well as a reduction in noise pollution. Both
benefits contribute to improving the community's health by using public
transportation and living in an area where public transportation is available.
The environmental benefits are non-monetary benefits and have been computed
based on monetization data available in mentioned sources.
(d) Benefits to
users due to savings in travel time: The e-BRTS operates on a dedicated
corridor and results in higher speeds and reduced travel time for the users.
The vehicle km of diverted traffic has been estimated as a product of no. of
diverted vehicles, the average trip length of each vehicle, and the no. of
trips made by the vehicle. The travel time savings of diverted commuters are
based on the trips saved due to the mode shift and the time value for work and
non-work trips. The monetary value of travel time is derived from the sources
mentioned..
(e) Benefits
from reduction in accidents: There is sufficient statistical evidence that
suggests that BRTS Ahmedabad has facilitated in reduction of road accidents
mainly because of the corridor working against wrong side driving habits. The
cited data shows relationships between the number of diverted vehicles and the
number of fatal, injury, and property damage accidents. The benefits of
reducing are calculated by first applying
the relationship between lowered diverted vehicles and related accidents and
then by computing the product of decreasing accidents with related compensation
costs.
(f) Benefits
from non-consumption of fossil fuel: The benefits due to savings of
non-consumption of fossil fuels constitute those that are contributed by the
diverted traffic (2-wheelers and cars) and the ceasing of the diesel BRTS.
These have been estimated as a product of the total vehicle km traveled due to
various modes, their respective mileages, and unit cost of fuel.
3.4. Costs estimations
(a) The
following are overviews of the costs that are expected to be incurred as a
result of the e-BRTS. Cost of corridor development
include capital costs associated with developing BRTS corridors, BRTS bus
shelters, depots, sliding doors, terminals, and, hardware / software for
intelligent transport system.
(b) The cost of
charging infrastructure includes the charging stations required for the
electric buses, which are assumed to be conductive charging stations currently
popular in other countries with electric bus mobility. The charging
infrastructure standards in India are still evolving, but market cost based on
charging specifications reported in other literature has been referenced. One
charger per bus is assumed based on charging time and bus scheduling requirements.
(c) The capital
cost of bus procurement includes the capital expenditure incurred, which has
been accounted based on the current market price and a subsidy sanctioned by
the Indian government for the city e-BRTS.
(d) The annual infrastructure maintenance cost (civil)
involves the annual BRTS corridor
maintenance cost for the civil components, estimated using a recent BRTS
publication.
(e) The
replacement cost of ITMS infrastructure comprises the costs of substituting
ITMS equipment (hardware, software, and fiber optic electronics), which are
also approximated from recent BRTS publication.
(f) The cost of
bus replacement is considered the same as the capital cost of buses and is
expected to occur at the end of 15 years in the analysis.
(g) The cost of
battery replacement includes the electric bus batteries, which have a high
storage capacity and have been identified as a significant cost component of
the system. Numerous battery technologies are available on the market,
depending upon variations in anode, cathode, and electrolyte combinations. Lead
acid batteries, nickel-based aqueous batteries, and lithium-ion batteries are
all standard technologies, with lithium-ion being the most commonly used in
present electric vehicles.
(h) The cost of
system operation and maintenance is predicted to include the cost of
electricity, maintenance, and skilled and unskilled labor. The city has adopted
a gross cost contract model for procurement, operation, and maintenance of
e-BRTS Ahmedabad. The supplier (TATA Motors) would operate and maintain the bus
at the cost of INR 59 per km.
(i) The cost of
additional electric power generation, transmission and distribution includes
the transition to electric mobility for buses means extra power or electricity
required from the grid, which will be transferred to the vehicle through
charging stations. The energy requirement of a typical electric bus is
estimated to be around 325 kWh, and the total power requirement has been
determined based on the size of the fleet. Although the electricity grid is
currently supplied by a mix of thermal and renewable energy, the cost of future
power is based on captive solar power plant generation. In order to account for
the solar power plant size and cost required for the e-BRTS fleet (88 buses),
the city's insolation level is assumed to be 5.8 kW/sq.m./day (Ranganath and Sarkar, 2021;
Sarkar and Sheth, 2021). The required energy and system size is calculated as
follows.
Energy Requirement = 88 x 325 = 28,600 kWh
System Size = 28600 x 1.3 / 5.8 = 6,410 kWp
For
a given size, the cost of solar captive power plant installation is estimated
based on price per unit data provided in Indian sources. About 95 % of the cost
of transmission and distribution (T&D) of the electric power constitutes
the capital cost of T&D infrastructure. The additional power's capital cost
for transmission and distribution infrastructure is estimated based on Indian
energy publications. The operating expenses are highly insignificant and
therefore not accounted for. It can be seen that Figure 2 schematically
represents the benefits of the e-BRTS project, and Figure 3 schematically
illustrates the costs of the e-BRTS project. Furthermore, Figure 4 depicts the
cash flow diagram of the expenses, while Figure 5 depicts the cash flow diagram
of the e-BRTS project's benefits.
Figure 2 Types of benefits, recurrence, and values (in Million INR) for the e-BRTS project
Figure 3 Types of costs, recurrence, and values (in Million INR) for the e-BRTS project
Figure 4 Cash flow
diagram of benefits of the e- project
Btot = BRR+BAR+BVCSB+BVCSD+BRFFC+BAPR+BNPR+BAR+BTTS
Where,
Btot: Total annual benefits
BRR: Benefits due to ridership revenue
BAR: Benefits due to advertisement revenue
BVCSB: Benefits due to vehicle cost saving of
bus traffic
BVCSD: Benefits due to vehicle cost saving of
diverted traffic
BRFFC: Benefits due to reduction in fossil
fuel consumption
BAPR: Benefits due to air pollution reduction
BNPR: Benefits due to noise pollution
reduction
BAR: Benefits due to accident reduction
BTTS: Benefits due to travel time savings
Figure 5 Cash flow
diagram of costs of the e-BRTS project
Ccap = CCD+ CBP + CCI
+ CSPI
Ca = CIM + CSOM
Where:
Ccap: Capital costs
Ca: Annual costs
CCD: Cost of corridor development
CBP: Cost of bus procurement
CCI: Cost of charging infrastructure installation
CSPI: Cost of solar power installation
CIM: Cost of infrastructure management
CSOM: Cost of system operation and maintenance
CITMSR: Cost of ITMS infrastructure
replacement
CBR: Cost of bus replacement
CBAR: Cost of battery replacement
Considering
uniform series present-worth, the present value of the annuity (P/A) has been
obtained by the following relationship:
The single payment present-worth has been obtained by the following relationship:
For
the analysis case, the discount rate, i is 12 % and the period of evaluation, n
is 25 years. The total annual benefits account for INR 4214.26 million (USD
54.03 million), corresponding to a present net of INR 33,053 million (USD
423.76 million).
The
total capital cost account for INR 12040.75 million (USD 154.37 million), and
the annual cost accounts for INR 840 million (USD 10.80 million). While the
one-time battery replacement cost for 5, 10 and 20 years is INR 1358 million
(USD17.41million) and the one-time cost of bus replacement at 15 years is INR
2000 million (USD 25.64 million). The one-time cost of ITMS infrastructure
replacement at 7, 14 and 21 years is INR 618 million (USD 7.92 million). The
total present-worth of these costs is 22,806.21 million (USD 292.39 million). Thus,
the social benefit-cost ratio of the proposed e-BRTS for a 12% discount rate
and 25 years life cycle is 1.45. Similarly, the social benefit-cost ratios at 8
%, 10 %, and 18 % discount rates are computed to be 1.72, 1.58, and 1.15,
respectively.
The
social benefit-cost analysis study carried out for a life cycle of 25 years for
the e-BRTS network under consideration in Ahmedabad revealed a benefit-to-cost
ratio greater than unity, indicating that it may be a positive investment for
the city if the various socio-economic factors are also evaluated and
considered. Figures 5 and 6 demonstrate the distribution of the present value
of multiple benefits and costs, respectively.
Significant environmental benefits of 50 % are anticipated for the case, followed by benefits due to a reduction in fossil fuel consumption of 29 %. It is further observed that a considerable cost is needed for developing such an infrastructure of 51 %. Another major component involved is the transaction system operation and maintenance cost of 24 %. Certain benefits are associated with the inherent existence of the BRTS in general, such as revenue generation, diverted traffic VOC, travel time savings, and accident reduction. They will continue remaining as benefits for the e-BRTS as well. However, the significant amount of additional benefits such as pollution reduction, savings in fossil fuel consumption, and VOC savings of diesel buses, that needs to be captured. Similarly, the costs associated with implementing the BRTS in general, such as corridor development, infrastructure maintenance cost, intelligent transport management system (ITMS) equipment replacement costs, and system operation and maintenance costs are significant and unavoidable. Some additional costs of charging infrastructure development, bus procurement and replacement, battery replacement, and electric power generation are also expected for the e-BRTS to be in place. The most significant future cost component envisaged is the cost of the bus, charging stations, and battery replacement, which constitutes 15-20 % of the total life cycle cost. Therefore, if the benefits and costs were to be evaluated in terms of existing and future expectations, the additional benefits due to e-BRTS which constitute 86 % of the benefits (INR 28,520 million or USD 365.64 million) far outweigh the costs due to e-BRTS which constitute only 20 % of the additional costs (INR 4,515 million or USD 57.88 million). This is a significant finding as it supports the fact that the e-BRTS can lead to the value addition of what has already been invested in existing BRTS. It can be seen that Figure 6 represents the existing and additional benefits of the e-BRTS while Figure 7 represents the existing and additional costs of the e-BRTS.
Figure 6 Existing and additional benefits of the
e-BRTS |
Figure 7 Existing
and additional costs of the e-BRTS |
This research presents a comprehensive social
benefit-cost analysis for assessing the feasibility of implementing an electric
bus transportation system. The analysis has been applied to the case of
Ahmedabad, India, where the electric bus system is being proposed along eight
routes. The fundamental rigor behind electrifying bus transport is its
sustainability values. This study uses precise quantitative analysis to justify
the concept. Thus, it contributes by illustrating that the social benefit-cost
analysis may be used as a tool for supporting both sustainability concerns and
appraisals of such otherwise financially less viable transport projects.
According to the analysis, it has been concluded that the electric BRTS
implementation for the selected network in the city is favourable as the
present worth of benefits exceeds the costs. It has been observed that the
benefit-cost ratio for a discount rate of 12 % and life cycle of 25 years is
found to be 1.45 and the internal rate of return is estimated at greater than
18 %. And also, the benefit-cost ratio at 8 %, 10 %, and 18 % discount rates
are estimated to be 1.72, 1.58, and 1.15, respectively. It has also been
observed that road users are the main beneficiaries. Life cycle environmental
benefits can represent up to 50% of the benefits which sums up to INR 16,600
million (255 million USD) for the studied case. The major cost, 51% involved in
the implementation of an e-BRT project, is infrastructure development, which
amounts to INR 11,549 million (USD 178 million) for the studied case, with
corridor development being the major subcomponent. A significant finding of the
detailed existing and future cost-benefit components for the context-specific
case studied revealed that the e-BRTS additional benefits foreseen due to
e-BRTS which is 86% or INR 28,250
million (USD 435 million), far outweigh the additional costs, which is about 20% or INR 4,514 million (USD
70 million) incurred for its successful implementation. This is considered
valuable to the city's efforts and investment in various socio-economic causes.
Even though high financial returns are not expected from the e-BRTS, the
project can be called sustainable due to the numerous benefits to road users and its fruitful socio-economic
perspectives. The scope of future research may address efforts to develop a
more robust and self-sustaining financial model that may enable electric bus
mobility in Indian cities.
The
authors gratefully acknowledge the co-operation of the transportation
authorities of Ahmedabad for providing the necessary data to carry out this
research work. No research grant from any funding sources has been received for
this research.
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