|Björn Pieprzyk||ERA Energy Research Architecture, Kastanienallee 46 10119 Berlin, Germany|
|Uwe Lahl||Technical University Darmstadt, Germany|
ILUC is the abbreviation for Indirect Land Use Change. ILUC predictions mainly depend on the assumptions about how the additional agricultural demand for biomass production is covered. But iLUC due to agricultural growth varied strongly in the past among the different regions worldwide. Therefore, we analyzed the correlation between the development of the agricultural production and the land use changes and investigated which options (expansion of the agricultural area, increasing productivity, forest clearing etc.) supplied the feedstock demand for the growing agriculture sector in the past. Our investigations altogether show what the essential option for the increase of the biomass production has been and how it is related to the intensification of the usage of existing agricultural area, globally and even in countries with a high deforestation rate. Besides this the analysis of the main drivers of land use change in the past due to agriculture growth is essential for iLUC predictions and prevention policy. One driver was the loss of agricultural land in important areas all over the world. Our analysis shows that governance has a central influence on the development of land use. If the decoupling of production increase from the expansion of agricultural area for biomass production into nature areas wants to be achieved, it will have to happen via governance in the relevant countries. Therefore, instruments have to be developed and implemented that are able to regulate land use sophistically corresponding to the individual countries.
Agricultural production, Biofuels, Deforestation, Governance, ILUC
Bauen, A., Chudziak, C., Vad, K., Watson, P., 2010. A causal descriptive approach to modelling the GHG emissions associated with the indirect land use impacts of biofuels. Final report. A study for the UK Department for Transport. E4tech.
Bellassen, V., Crassous, R., Dietzsch, L., Schwartzman, S., 2008. Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation: What contribution from carbon markets?. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 6 252020.
Creutzig, F., Popp, A., Plevin, R., Luderer, G., Minx, J.,Edenhofer, O., 2012. Reconciling topdown and bottom-up modelling on future bioenergy deployment. Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1416.
De Miranda, E.E.,Mattos, C., 1992. Brazilian rain forest colonization and biodiversity. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Volume 40, pp. 275-296.
Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R.,Sokona, Y., Seyboth, K., Matschoss, P., Kadner, S., Zwickel, T., Eickemeier, P., Hansen, G., Schlömer, S., von Stechow, C., 2011. IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
European Commission, 2010. The impact on land use change on greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels and bioliquids. Literature review.
Fairhurst, T., McLaughlin, D., 2009. Sustainable oil palm development on degraded land in Kalimantan, World Wildlife Fund, Washington, USA.
FAO, 1993. Forest Resources Assessment 1990. Tropical countries. FAO Corporate Document Repository.
FAOSTAT (2012), Statistics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. available on: [accessed on June 5th 2012]
Fearnside, P.M., 2005. Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia: History, rates and consequences. Conservation Biology, Volume 19, Number 3, pp. 680-688.
FWI/GFW, 2002. The State of the Forest: Indonesia. Forest Watch Indonesia: Bogor, Indonesia; Global Forest Watch: Washington DC, USA.
Geist, H. J.,Lambin, E. F., 2002. Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation. BioScience Volume 52, Number 2, pp. 143-150.
Gibbs, H.K., Ruesch, A.S., Achard, F., Clayton, M.K., Holmgren, P., Ramankutty, N., Foley, J.A., 2010. Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Volume 107, Number 38, pp. 16732-16737.
Gold, S., 2003. The Development of European Forest Resources, 1950 to 2000: a better Information Base. Geneva timber and forest discussion paper 31. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: Geneva, Switzerland.
INPE (InstitutoNacional de PesquisasEspaciais), 2012. Projeto Prodes Monitoramento Da Floresta Amazônica Brasileira Por Satélite. available on: [accessed on 03/06/12]
Joyce, A. T., 2006. Land Use Change in Costa Rica 1966-2006 as influenced by social, economic, political, and environmental factors. San Jose, Costa Rica: Litografía e Imprenta LIL.
Laborde, D., 2011. Assessing the Land Use Change Consequences of European Biofuel Policies. Final Report. International Food Policy Institute (IFPRI).
Liska, A., Perrin R., 2009. Indirect land use emissions in the life cycle of biofuels: regulations vs science. Biofuels, Bioproduction. Biorefinery. DOI: 10.1002/bbb.153,318-328.
Macedoa, M.N., DeFries, R.S., Morton, D.C., Stickler, C.M., Galford, G.L., Shimabukuro, Y.E., 2012. Decoupling of deforestation and soy production in the southern Amazon during the late 2000s. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 109, issue 4, pp. 1341-1346.
Makiko Hirota, M., 2003. Monitoring the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Cover. In The Atlantic Forest of South America. Biodiversity Status, Threat, and Outlook. Carlos Galindo-Leal and Ibsen de GusmaoCamara, Center for Applied Biodiversity Science at Conservation International: Washington DC, USA.
Marelli, L., Ramos, F., Hiederer, R.,Koeble, R., 2011. Estimate of GHG emissions from global land use change scenarios. JRC Technical Notes. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy.
Metzger J.O., Huettermann A., 2008. Sustainable global energy supply based on lignocellulosic biomass from afforestation of degraded areas. Naturwissenschaften, Volume 96, Issue 2, pp. 279-288.
Nepstad, D.C., Stickler, C.M., Soares-Filho, B., Merry, F., 2008. Interactions Among Amazon Land Use, Forests and Climate: Prospects for a Near-Term Forest Tipping Point. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Volume 363, pp. 1737–1746.
Öko-Institut,Prognos. 2009. Blueprint Germany. A strategy for a climate safe 2050. Final report. Basel, Berlin.
Pacheco, P., 2002. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: A review of estimates at the municipal level. Draft for Comments. Belém, Brasilien.
Searchinger, T., Heimlich, R., Houghton, R.A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D., Yu, T.H., 2008. Use of US croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land use change. Science, Volume 319, pp, 1238-1240.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2009. Summary Report: 2007 National Resources Inventory, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Washington D.C. and Center for Survey Statistics and Methodology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2009. U.S. Forest Facts and Historical Trends. Forest Service.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2011. Total forest-use land 1945-2007 by State Economic Research Service.
Volpi, G., (2007), Climate Mitigation, Deforestation and Human Development in Brazil. Human Development Report 2007/2008. UNDP.
Wicke, B., Sikkema, R., Dornburg, V., Junginger, M.,Faaij, A., 2008. Drivers of land use change and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia: Overview of past developments and future projections. Copernicus Institute, Universiteit Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
WWF, ECOFYS, OMA, 2011. The Energy Report. 100% Renewable Energy 2050. WWF Report 2011 in collaboration with ECOFYS and OMA, Gland, Switzerland; Utrecht, The Netherlands; Rotterdam, The Netherlands.